Each day I wade through the chaos of news to find stand-out stories and create short summaries for my followers.
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In today's edition, I look at how we can seize the benefits of technological innovation!
From Paper Trees to GPT-3
⨠This brief was inspired by the brilliant BBC documentary, The Secret History of Writing.
When SpaceX sends astronauts into outer space, and the launch vehicles return unscathed to a pinpoint location, it feels like there is nothing we cannot accomplish. When the worldâs leading superpower is unable to hold a democratic election without tearing apart at the seams, it reminds us of the fragility of mankind.
As innovation continues along its exponential trajectory, we wonder if the new technology will take us to the stars or plunge us to the depths of destruction. Should we go all-in on innovation or protect ourselves from the threat of technological disruption? Hubris or paralysis?
Technology drives human flourishing. When we look back on history, we see cultures that have seized opportunity and flourished more than others.
How do we position ourselves to seize the benefits of technological innovation? The history of writing provides us with some clues.
The secret history of paper
Written words may have started as hieroglyphs carved into stone, but they werenât to be trapped in place for long. Instead, the journey of human flourishing was closely followed by equally progressive writing technology. Or was it the other way around?
Egyptians began the use of papyrus, a type of sedge, as the medium for writing. It grew prolifically along the Nile, was easy to harvest and cheap to transport.
The Roman Empire went on to use papyrus to produce and distribute literature in the form of books. As the empire and its network of roads expanded, the papyrus trade grew with it. Only the eventual weakening of the empire could slow the papyrus trade.
As the availability of papyrus dwindled with the fortunes of Rome, parchment - generally made from sheep or cow skin - took over as the new choice for constructing books.
Interestingly, a book consisted of multiple animal skins that were folded in the middle to form pages. You could actually see markings in the parchment from where the skin rested against the animal's spine - and that's where we get the saying "the spine of the book".
The absorbency of parchment enables a much higher quality of writing, but writing on papyrus is 3-4 times faster than on parchment. The result: the cost of producing a book (animal skins + writing time) was much higher on parchment than papyrus.
A superior quality book, made from parchment, would cost up to ÂŁ20 - the price of a house at that time. An 800-page book would require 400 animal skins! It was adorned with flattened gold leaf, blue imported from Afghanistan, and malachite green from central Europe. Books became the pinnacle of Medieval art.
However, the increased cost of production saw a dramatic drop in the total volume of books being produced, making them inaccessible to the general public. Yes, the shift from papyrus to parchment created beautifully illuminated manuscripts. But they came at the cost of the literacy and education of the people.
Meanwhile, China was overseeing a booming industry - paper. Invented in the 2nd Century AD, China kept the paper production process a state secret for almost 600 years! In contrast to European parchments, paper was so plentiful in China that people were able to buy blank books for jotting down notes.
It wasnât until 751, when the Muslim world checked Chinaâs westward expansion, that a team of Chinese paper makers were captured and the secret of paper was set free.
The BBC provide a nice (3-minute) vignette of the original paper making process.
The introduction of paper and the easy distribution of information, led to the Islamic Golden Age. Math, sciences, algebra, and the counting system we use today, all came from this paper-fuelled explosion of ideas.
Then, in 1450, the vulgate bible was printed by Angus Gutenberg and his eponymous printing press. The Chinese had used carved wooden blocks for printing, but the creation of blocks was a laborious task performed by skilled artisans. In contrast, the printing press could be operated by anyone, publish books at a much faster rate, and enabled editing at a moments notice.
It was a revolution. Thankfully, for Europe, the latinate lettering happened to be block-shaped and perfect for the press lettering used in the printing press. The end result was superior in comparison to hand-written documents, and so Gutenbergâs presses ran day and night to meet the unrelenting demand for their high-quality, low-cost bibles.
Incredibly, the Islamic world adopted the printing press shortly after the Europeans, but after 20 years Arabic printing died off. There seems to be two reasons for this counter-intuitive response:
Unfortunately, the flowing, tiered style of Arabic letters didn't suit the moveable type of a printing press, so the end result was completely inferior to hand-written books.
Early adopters felt that the poor-quality printing wasnât worthy of their holy book, so the Koran was not initially printed on the early printing press. Instead, the first book printed in Arabic was the dictionary. Unsurprisingly, there was little demand for a book of definitions, etymologies and pronunciations.
As BBC commentator, Lydia Wilson, puts it:
âLatin letters made the printing press work, and it was popularised by the decision to print the bible as the first book.
This led to an explosion of literacy and the scientific revolution in Europe.
That, in turn, led to the Industrial Revolution and the world we live in today.â
The rest is history.
The Benefit Probability Model
Beyond just a fascinating story, the history of writing provides a simple model for assessing the probability that we will benefit from disruptive technology.
The Benefit Probability Model asks four questions:
Will this new technology unleash a transformative capability (paper)?
What will be the next force multiplier (printing press)?
What base elements put a culture at a distinct advantage (latin block lettering)?
What is the best "first use" to capture interest and ubiquitous roll out (bible vs dictionary)?
Technology pundits are referring to these current times as the Roaring 20s. But weâve moved well beyond the economic prosperity of the 1920s. The 2020s have become an era of innovative prosperity beyond anything weâve seen before. And there are many examples.
The first working mRNA vaccines were recently produced in record time. SpaceX is revolutionising space exploration. Cryptocurrencies and the block-chain are transforming finance. Autonomous electric vehicles are within reach. And AI systems, like GPT-3, are only moments away from passing the Turing Test.
Probably the most frequently used example of GPT-3 is its ability to write. Case in point, GPT-3 wrote this article in The Guardian. Extending the theme of technology advancement in the written word, we can apply the questions from the Benefit Probability model to GPT-3.
Will this new technology unleash a transformative capability?
No doubt. Online writing tools like Google docs, Substack newsletters, and grammar checkers are brilliant. But an AI system that takes a prompt, compiles all available research, and creates a unique document/article/tweet/book - that is a transformation that is almost impossible to fathom.
What will be the next force multiplier?
Quantum computing. Computers that use QBits (made from super-conductive materials) and quantum physics principles (super-position, entanglement, interference) to deliver calculation speeds that are trillions times faster than the fastest super computers we currently have. Scientists estimate that Quantum computers will give us the ability to model the complexity of nature - something that has never been within reach.
What base elements put a culture at a distinct advantage?
Free and prosperous cultures attract talented people. Talented people win the technology innovation race. This quote from Tyler Cowen says it all:
âIf you are wondering whether China or the U.S. with its allies is more likely to make a big breakthrough, in, say, quantum computing, ask yourself a simple question: Which network will better attract talented immigrants?â
Cultures that provide freedom, prosperity, security and opportunity to its people are much more likely to attract the best talent.
What is the best "first use" to capture interest and ubiquitous roll out?
When looking for an initial use case that will generate mass adoption, I think health is an interesting place to start. An AI system with access to unlimited data, powered by quantum computing, will deliver medical insights that are beyond current comprehension.
Offering people a longer, healthier life would generate a demand that may even surpass that expressed for Gutenbergâs vulgate Bible!
The road ahead is anyoneâs guess. But hereâs the lesson I take from the past. The path that lays somewhere between hubris and paralysis is likely the best. Turning our backs on technological innovation is almost definitely the worst. Why would we let someone else lead the next revolution and shape the world in which we live?
If you'd like to see more of what I'm exploring, you can follow me on twitter. If you've come across something you think I'd like, hit reply and let me know why it's worth checking out (articles, lectures, podcasts, books, exhibitions⌠whatever).